Sunday, November 17, 2024

The Anthropology of the Trump Victory

Many of my friends and I are still struggling to understand how Trump was able to win the 2024 election. The anthropologist, Alex Hinton, has written a short article in The Conversation that seeks to explain the Trumpiverse, as he calls it.

I have long admired Alex Hinton’s work on genocide (see also here and here) and a book titled It Can Happen Here: White Power and the Rising Threat of Genocide in the US  (2021, which I have not yet read), so this critique is not of his work so much as an insight into a common problem with anthropological analyses.

Hinton argues that to understand Trump voters, we need to listen and understand. This, of course, is basic to the anthropological approach. Anthropologists who confront “weird and exotic” beliefs and behaviors in foreign cultures suspend judgment and try to understand the logic of what to them, initially, seems illogical.

Hinton lists “five key lines of reasoning that, in varying combinations, informed the choices of Trump voters.” They are 1) Media distortion, 2) better economy, 3) the border invasion, 4) a proven record, and 5) the MAGA bull in a china shop (he’s a fighter). The problem is, however, that each of these lines of reasoning are either mistaken or misleading. Let’s take each in turn.

1) The claim of media distortion rests on the view that journalists are unfairly critical of Trump, and criticize everything he does. Hinton mentions Trump voters’ belief in the “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” an illogical dislike of Trump. But anyone who follows the news already knows his followers believe this. The question is, why do people believe this. Hinton also says:

“About 78% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independent voters say that Trump broke the law when he allegedly tried to overturn the 2020 election results. But less than half of Republicans think he did anything wrong.”

What high school social studies class did these Republicans take? How can they not be offended by Trump’s behavior in attempting to steal the 2020 election? (I’m also wondering about that 22% of Democrats. Usually, you can assume 8% of respondents misunderstood a question, or are the fringe that believes the moon landing was faked in a Hollywood studio, but how do 22% of Democrats dismiss the Jan. 6th insurrection and the call to the Georgia Secretary of State to “find 11,780 votes”?!) Is it really “distortion” to worry about Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election? The real question is how Trump supporters can look beyond this, and how they can excuse Trump's withholding funds for Ukraine until President Zelensky started an investigation on Biden.

2) On the economy, it is true that inflation hit during Biden’s term, but the seeds of that were also laid with money spent during the Trump administration, money well spent to assist during the pandemic. In fact, inflation was a global phenomenon, and the US handled it better than nearly every country, with The Economist noting the US economy was the envy of the world.

Joe Biden’s 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, AKA the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, called for approximately $1.2 trillion in spending, about $550 billion newly authorized spending on top of regular expenditures, which, as Biden noted, it was the largest investment in our nations infrastructure in a generation. As Heather Cox Richardson notes, “In the past three years, the Biden administration launched more than 66,000 projects across the country, repairing 196,000 miles of roads and 11,400 bridges, as well as replacing 367,000 lead pipes and modernizing ports and airports. … In his first term, Trump had promised a bill to address the countrys long-neglected infrastructure, but his inability to get that done made infrastructure week a joke. Biden got a major bill passed, but while the administration nicknamed the law the Big Deal, Biden got very little credit for it politically. Republicans who had voted against the measure took credit for the projects it funded, and voters seemed not to factor in the jobs and improvements it brought when they went to the polls last week.” That is what needs to be explained, not just what people are saying.

3) A border invasion. Here again, while there was a surge at the beginning of the Biden administration, border crossings now are below the level they were under Trump. The question should be, why are so many people upset over immigration (82% or Republicans said it was a “very important” issue in 2022, according to Hinton), especially given that immigrants (both documented and undocumented) do most of the work native born Americans are unwilling to do, from farm work, slaughter house work, and in nursing homes. This is especially surprising given that much research shows that immigrants do not really compete with native-born Americans for jobs. The real questions are why have Republicans been able to demonize immigrants? Hinton notes that “In 2022, a poll found 7 out of 10 Republicans worried that open borders were part of a Democratic plot to expand liberals power by replacing conservative white people with nonwhite foreigners.” Why does this ludicrous belief make sense to people? And why, as Hinton notes, was Trump able to “play[…] into some peoples mostly false concerns that immigrants living illegally in the U.S. are freeloaders and wont assimilate, as illustrated by his untrue September 2024 allegations that immigrants were eating pets in Ohio.” Why did Christians, who read a Bible that advocates helping the poor and needy, become so angry about immigrants?

4) A better record. Trump supporters claimed there were no wars under Trump, but that ignores the fact that the US was still fighting in Afghanistan during Trump 45. It was Trump’s poorly thought out agreement with the Taliban that forced Biden to pull the US out of Afghanistan, and though the administration could have perhaps handled the exit better, it was Trump’s decision to pull out in one year that doomed the anti-Taliban forces. Hinton notes that “Trump supporters perception is that American taxpayers foot a large portion of the bill, even though other countries are also giving money to Ukraine, and Israel is actually buying weapons from the U.S.” The question should be, why do they have these incorrect views?

5) Bull in a China Shop: Hinton concludes by saying that some people like him because he is a fighter. “Some in the Trumpiverse even view him as savior who will rescue the U.S. from a radical left apocalypse. For Trump stalwarts, MAGA is not simply a slogan. It is a movement to save an America that is on the brink of failure.” Again, we know this from news reports. The real cultural question is why, when the US economy is strong and we are the most prosperous country in human history, why would people believe the country is at risk to “leftists” and on the brink of failure?

Today’s America has changed from the recent past in three ways. First, the proportion of non-whites in the country has increased. Second, other parts of the world have developed, so US dominance of the world is less complete. And third, there has been a huge growth in inequality within the US. Much of the rage of Trump voters may be aimed at this growing inequality, but it took a political entrepreneur to pin the blame on immigrants. And that does not explain why voters would support a tin-pot “billionaire,” and why they think “He gets me.” That is the cultural question that needs to be addressed.

Furthermore, how can we understand why Trump’s outrageous behavior has been excused and even glorified. How is it that Hillary Clinton’s statement that half of Trump’s supporters were “a basket of deplorables” supposedly hurt her election efforts, while Trump’s numerous “gaffes” had no effect, especially his Access Hollywood video clip where he bragged that he could grab women by the genitals?

Part of the reason is that many (most?) voters are ignorant, to use a politically incorrect term that Trump might approve. A study from Datafor Progress showed that people who paid a great deal of attention to political news voted for Vice President Kamala Harris +6, while those who paid none at all went +19 for Trump. In conversations with relatives and strangers on a trip I've been on, I realize that even professionals may not follow or understand politics as deeply as I have often assumed.

Sometimes I wonder if the Roman elites asked similar questions, like "How can they believe that?!", when they faced an increasing number of followers of an irrational cult led by a preacher supposedly born of a virgin who came back to life after being crucified. I think there is still a lot of work for anthropologists to understand the deep cultural forces that make MAGA and Trumpiverse meaningful for its followers.

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